Mortality Analysis of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Pakistan


Ambreen Chaudhry, Aamer Ikram, Mirza Amir Baig, Muhammad Salman, Tamkeen Ghafoor, Zakir Hussain, Mumtaz Ali Khan, Jamil Ahmed Ansari, Asif Syed, Wasif Javed, Ehsan Larik, Muhammad Mohsan, Naveed Masood, Zeeshan Iqbal and Khurram Akram

Introduction: COVID-19, a novel disease, appeared in December 2019 in China and rapidly spread across the world. Till the second week of April 2020, high incidence (2.9/100,000) and cases fatality rates (1.7%) were observed in Pakistan. This study was conducted to determine the temporal and spatial distribution of the first 100 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in
Pakistan and their associated demographic factors.
Method: A record review of the first 100 deaths reported among RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases was conducted. Demographic, epidemiological, and risk factors information was obtained associated comorbidities and clinical signs and symptoms were recorded and frequencies were determined.
Results: A total of 100 mortalities with an overall case fatality rate of 1.67% (CFR) were analyzed. The median age of patients was 64.5 years (IQR: 54-70)
with 75% (n=75) males. Among all deaths reported, 71 (71%) cases had one or more documented comorbidities at the time of diagnosis. The most
frequently reported co-morbidities were: hypertension (67%), followed by Diabetes Mellitus (45%) and Ischemic Heart Diseases (27%). The most frequent presenting symptoms were shortness of breath (87%) and fever (79%). The median duration of illness was eight days (IQR: 4-11 days), the median delay reaching hospital to seek health care was three days (IQR: 0-6 days) while the median duration of hospital stay was also three days (IQR: 1-7 days). Among all, 62% had no history of international travel. The most
affected age group was 60-69 years while no death reported in the age group below 20 years.
Conclusion: High CFR among old age group and its association with co-morbidities (chronic disease) suggests targeted interventions such as social
distancing and strict quarantine measures for elderly and morbid people. Comparative studies among deaths and recovered patients are recommended to explore further disease dynamics.

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