Estimation of the Final Size of COVID-19 Epidemic in Balochistan


Muhammad Arif, Aftab Kakar and Ehsan Larik

COVID-19 is a new disease that is spreading very fast in Pakistan. Cases have been reported from all of the provinces including Balochistan. The first two confirmed cases in Pakistan had travel history by road from Iran to Balochistan, hence SIR model used to predict the magnitude of the disease in Balochistan from May 2020 on wards when lock down and other
social distancing measures were loosen up by the government of Balochistan. Our Prediction model shows that about 30,00000 individuals in Balochistan will be infected by 5th of July 2020.Over all 25% of the total population of Balochistan will be affected by this disease with 98% (2940,000 ) recovery rate by the end of 15th July 2020.

Full Text